The Man From the Train
Posted: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:02 am
Reading through an interesting book from statistician Bill James about a serial killer that hunted for years during the early 20th Century. He sifted through old news accounts and found many long-forgotten ax murder cases.
There's no reason to connect this to the Borden murders, but there are some interesting comparisons.
For example, the Calaway family murder in San Antonio in 1911. Husband, wife, 3 young children. One thing that puzzled everyone was why no one woke up. All were killed with the blunt end of a heavy ax. So police initially speculated the family had been poisoned so were unconscious when killed. No evidence of poison was found. But with this poison speculation sweeping through, a witness emerged. A saloonkeeper testified that Calaway had come into his saloon at 11PM that night and took a bucket of beer home. The newspapers started reporting this as a keep reveletion.
Of course the story makes no sense. Calway was not a drinker. His wife abstained. His children were 6, 3 and 5 months. It started pouring that night around 11pm. To buy into this witness account, you have to believe Calaway, who rarely drank, went out in the pouring rain, brought home a bucket of beer, along the way managing to let someone slip in poison, and then shared it with his abstaining wife and young children.
Bill James puts it this way: "People get very excited when an event such
as this occurs in their neighborhood, and they say all sorts of things that are not true."
It reminds us, of course, of the prussic acid.
There are numerous cases analyzed in James' book, and in almost every one there are witnesses like this. They report things that turn out to be impossible or extremely unlikely, but there reports fit a prevailing narrative, so they get believed, at least for a time. Sometimes these reports result in trials, and often those trials end up in acquittal since the evidence doesn't add up. Sometimes they even lead to someone innocent being executed.
It really does seem to be the norm in high profile cases that these types of witness emerge. Every case has its Eli Bence.
Some other interesting observations from these cases.
a) it's not at all unusual for a serial killer to demonstrate what looks like extreme anger and passion in destroying his victims. If the killer has time, he'll pulverize his victims, especially their faces, far beyond what is needed to kill. This might even be the norm, but certainly it is not at all unusual.
b) the man on the train was a very patient killer. He would lie in a barn watching the family for hours, in some cases all day(at least this is how James interprets the evidence). Once inside the house, he maintains his patience. He can kill and then wait for the next victim to enter the room, or if they are asleep he can calmly walk from one room to the next doing his work. His killings demonstrate both frenzy and calm patience at the same time.
I am not suggesting any of this means Lizzie didn't kill the Bordens. I've yet to find a case where a serial killer murders one person, waits around while leaving others in the home alone, murders again, while still leaving the other two alone.
Of course, there are also no examples that I know of where a woman with no history of violence, psychosis or substance abuse...a woman who was not poor or in extreme circumstances...kills in such a brutal way.
No matter what happened that day in Fall River, it was something extremely unusual, a case without parallel.
But I do think it's also instructive to look at these and other cases. Now, just as back then, we have a hard time processing evidence. As we start to buy into one narrative or another, this really colors how we interpret evidence and testimony. And we also are vulnerable to false witness testimony. It's because this is poorly understood. People lie, yes, but often a witness believes he's telling the truth, or they come to believe it.
There's no reason to connect this to the Borden murders, but there are some interesting comparisons.
For example, the Calaway family murder in San Antonio in 1911. Husband, wife, 3 young children. One thing that puzzled everyone was why no one woke up. All were killed with the blunt end of a heavy ax. So police initially speculated the family had been poisoned so were unconscious when killed. No evidence of poison was found. But with this poison speculation sweeping through, a witness emerged. A saloonkeeper testified that Calaway had come into his saloon at 11PM that night and took a bucket of beer home. The newspapers started reporting this as a keep reveletion.
Of course the story makes no sense. Calway was not a drinker. His wife abstained. His children were 6, 3 and 5 months. It started pouring that night around 11pm. To buy into this witness account, you have to believe Calaway, who rarely drank, went out in the pouring rain, brought home a bucket of beer, along the way managing to let someone slip in poison, and then shared it with his abstaining wife and young children.
Bill James puts it this way: "People get very excited when an event such
as this occurs in their neighborhood, and they say all sorts of things that are not true."
It reminds us, of course, of the prussic acid.
There are numerous cases analyzed in James' book, and in almost every one there are witnesses like this. They report things that turn out to be impossible or extremely unlikely, but there reports fit a prevailing narrative, so they get believed, at least for a time. Sometimes these reports result in trials, and often those trials end up in acquittal since the evidence doesn't add up. Sometimes they even lead to someone innocent being executed.
It really does seem to be the norm in high profile cases that these types of witness emerge. Every case has its Eli Bence.
Some other interesting observations from these cases.
a) it's not at all unusual for a serial killer to demonstrate what looks like extreme anger and passion in destroying his victims. If the killer has time, he'll pulverize his victims, especially their faces, far beyond what is needed to kill. This might even be the norm, but certainly it is not at all unusual.
b) the man on the train was a very patient killer. He would lie in a barn watching the family for hours, in some cases all day(at least this is how James interprets the evidence). Once inside the house, he maintains his patience. He can kill and then wait for the next victim to enter the room, or if they are asleep he can calmly walk from one room to the next doing his work. His killings demonstrate both frenzy and calm patience at the same time.
I am not suggesting any of this means Lizzie didn't kill the Bordens. I've yet to find a case where a serial killer murders one person, waits around while leaving others in the home alone, murders again, while still leaving the other two alone.
Of course, there are also no examples that I know of where a woman with no history of violence, psychosis or substance abuse...a woman who was not poor or in extreme circumstances...kills in such a brutal way.
No matter what happened that day in Fall River, it was something extremely unusual, a case without parallel.
But I do think it's also instructive to look at these and other cases. Now, just as back then, we have a hard time processing evidence. As we start to buy into one narrative or another, this really colors how we interpret evidence and testimony. And we also are vulnerable to false witness testimony. It's because this is poorly understood. People lie, yes, but often a witness believes he's telling the truth, or they come to believe it.